baseline
Personal health · Causal inference

Own your baseline.

Know what is actually working. Every stream of your health data in one record — then Bayesian causal inference on your own history. You get an effect size with a credible interval, not a correlation and a vibe.

Private beta · Cohort 01 · 2026
DAY 01ONE WINDOW PER NIGHT OBSERVEDDAY 62
01 — Ingest
Watch, blood, gut, meals — one record.
02 — Model
Bayesian time series, pooled across a population.
03 — Answer
An effect size, with an interval around it.
Hierarchical model · n=1 pooled across the cohort · confounders held: travel, alcohol, late meals

How Baseline works

Baseline merges six streams of personal health data — wearable and watch metrics, blood panels, gut and continuous glucose monitoring, meals, symptoms, and supplements — into a single record aligned on one nightly time axis. It then fits a hierarchical Bayesian time series to that record, pooling across a population to estimate the causal effect of an intervention on an outcome for one individual.

Worked result

Magnesium glycinate 400 mg increased deep sleep by 18(95% credible interval +6 to +31 minutes) across 62with a 97% posterior probability of benefit. Estimated with a hierarchical Bayesian model, n=1 pooled across the cohort, holding travel, alcohol, and late meals as confounders.

Open benchmark

N1Bench

Full leaderboard →

The first open benchmark for causal reasoning over personal health data. We publish our own scores next to every frontier model — a system that tells you what’s working should be able to prove it doesn’t tell you things that aren’t.

#
System
Effect
Calibr.
01
Baseline v0.4 (hierarchical)
0.81
0.94
02
Frontier model A + tools
0.63
0.71
03
Frontier model B
0.58
0.66
04
Frontier model C
0.52
0.61
05
Correlation only
0.24
0.19